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RECAP:
Last week was all about Hurricane Matthew. On Tuesday October 4th, I put out a write up on the forum expressing my thought's where I ultimately said Matthew will avoid tracking up the east coast. He did end up tracking a little more north than I originally thought - bringing nearly an inch of rain to southern and coastal sections on Sunday - but he took a sharp right turn once he got caught in the jet stream. A sigh of relief for most!
Week of 10/10 - 10/16 Forecast:
Normally I like to go day by day but that will not be necessary this week. This is going to end up being the nicest Fall week of the season. Expect abundant sunshine every day with temps in the mid 60's to low 70's. The first couple of days winds will be from the north, so there will be a slight chill in the air. It would not surprise me if temps stayed in the mid to upper 60's all week but there is a chance later in the week we could crack 70 degrees. Figure 1 gives a look of the current state of the Fall foliage.
Figure 1 - Fall foliage underway in most of the area. Most prominent in New England at this time
Long Range Forecast:
If you're looking for a period of below normal weather that could possibly bring our first snow flurries to the area, I am sad to report I do not see this happening yet. Figure 2 is an image of the EPS valid Monday October 17th. What we see is a large trough over the Pacific Northwest bringing below normal and unsettled conditions to that part of the country. Over Alaska you see the "Alaskan Vortex" - a socket of below normal heights from a strong low pressure system - which is stationary causing the ridge in the SW CONUS to expand into central U.S. The positive heights do not extend fully into the Northeast. For the most part, we look to remain in a normal temperature regime.
Figure 2 - 500mb height anomalies from the EPS show cooler weather in PAC NW, warm in the south, around normal in the east
The amplification of the NPAC trough is driven by a strong 200mb northern jet. As long as the jet streak in that part of the country remains strong, that Low could be there for awhile. This means the eastern U.S. is likely to stay relatively dry with average or even slightly above average temps. This is what I am seeing heading into the week of the 17th.
Not a whole lot to report! Have a great week.
Best,
Frank Paparatto
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