Is it safe to say the January Roidzilla was the highlight of the winter? I mean, I don't even think it is close. And the sad part is the Roidzilla, aka Jonas, did not bring the 2+ feet snowfall amounts to a widespread area. It was fairly concentrated from central and eastern NJ through NYC / LI. Central Park got below zero and we even had a severe weather outbreak. I think those may be the top 3. I think it is fair to say winter has ended. We will see record warm temperatures this week and even more mild weather on the way for the following week.
The EURO (top) and GFS (bottom) suggest temps on Thursday afternoon will reach the mid 70's. That is about 15 to 25 degrees above normal for this time of year. May weather in March, who would have thunk it?!
Be on the look out for rain late Thursday into early Friday. The bulk of the rain will stay to our north. Both the GFS and EURO models are in agreement of that. Do not rule out a spotty shower though. High Pressure if off to the south and east which keeps our temps fairly mild. More rain is possible Sunday into Monday next week. At this time it does not look like a high amount.
One reason we are seeing these mild temps is because the Pacific Jet is crashing into the west coast of the U.S. This keeps the PNA negative with frequent rain storms affecting the PAC NW. Notice how the ridge builds over the east with a strong High off the east coast.
This pattern looks to last through the week of 03/14 as well. The PNA stays negative and the eastern U.S. stays under the influence of a southeast ridge. When the Pacific Jet is strong and in control it does not bode well for cold weather lovers in the northeast.
By later in the month - say by the 19th - the pattern tried to flip to a split-flow. This shifts the Pacific Jet south into the SW CONUS and brings the northern jet driving across the northern tier of the country. The southeast ridge moves east and a trough tries to settle into the eastern U.S. At this time I do not think it will lead to any wintry weather, but it should get cooler or at least get to average later in the month. Honestly, the weather moving forward looks very boring. Personally I appreciate the weather turning a bit milder, but storm-wise I do not see anything significant.
El Nino should be weakening drastically as we head into April and May. By the summer we should begin talking about La Nina and how strong it may get by winter 2016-2017. We still have a long way to go before we reach that point. For now, our pattern should continue resembling one of El Nino for the most part.
Have a good night!
Best,
Francesco Paparatto
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