Just wanted to give a quick update on the late week storm(s) of which I blogged about on Sunday. Last weekend, the models were showing an impressive -EPO/+PNA couplet for the March 26th-April 1st time frame but that does not appear to be happening anymore. Instead, the EPO ridge is going to break down and the PNA ridge is going to be transient. This is going to keep the April 1st energy to our north instead of digging it south into our area and possibly spawning a coastal storm off our coast.
The trough coming in behind the cold front on Friday is going to bring another round of well below normal temperatures for this time of year. High's on Saturday will only be in the low 40's, and with a NW wind, it's going to feel like the 30's. There will also be enough H5 energy involved which could spawn a wave of low pressure of the coast. As the trough tilts negative for a bit, this could enhance precipitation along the coast in the form of snow.
The GFS, along with other models, are showing some snow showers for the area on Saturday afternoon. I would not expect much in accumulation, perhaps a coating to 1" best on grassy surfaces. If the trough is too quick - which is still possible - then we will not see any snow showers. I was never fond of this event for significant snowfall, I was more interested in the April 1st event.
That event, however, will probably bring little to no impact to our area. Like previously mentioned, the EPO ridge is breaking down and the upper air energy associated with this wave will not dig far enough south into our area. What's most likely to happen is a band of rain or snow showers will trickle over the area on Monday. You can see the 993mb low on the GFS remains well to our north in Upstate NY. The pattern is also progressive, so the western ridge is kind of shoving this system off to the east.
The Aleutian trough is going to come onshore and push the western ridge east. This is the main reason why the Monday event is likely not to come to fruition, along with the fact we lost the -EPO. Once that Pac. trough comes on land, it's going to turn the overall flow across the U.S. zonal and gradient-like.
Check this out, though. Guidance is suggesting the -EPO could make a comeback around the 5th of April. If this is true, you can expect another injection of cold air into the U.S. around that time frame with a large storm potential. The MJO is still active and propagating through cold phases, and the STJ could possibly play a role in a possible storm around the 6th.
The GFS and EURO agree about the EPO tanking negative again around the 4th of April. The long range is suggesting there could be a large coastal storm to deal with around this time. I do NOT feel the dominant precipitation type along the coast will be snow at this time, but if the dynamics are impressive enough, that could certainly pull enough cold air to the coast. Still too early to make any determinations. The pattern could stay progressive (if the EPO never goes negative) in which case we probably will not even see a storm. I'll be sure to keep everyone updated.
In the meantime, thunderstorms likely Thursday afternoon (not severe) with the return of colder weather this weekend. Some snow on Saturday is possible but nothing significant.
Enjoy the rest of your week and have a great weekend!
-Francesco Paparatto
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