What Now? Pattern Outlook and Winter

Besides some flurries or rain showers Monday night into Tuesday from an arctic front, we will remain dry for at least another week. This means the drought over parts of Long Island and NYC Metro will continue. Temperatures will be only in the 40's to start the week, but will get progressively warmer by the end of the week into the 50's.

Again, the biggest reason why there will not be a coastal storm this week like the EURO model suggested is because there is no blocking in the Atlantic. All the blocking is in the Pacific, evident by the large Aleutian ridge.

Speaking of that ridge, it will persist for another week as well.

12z EURO hour 168



The 00z GFS model also has a trough in the west and some ridging in the east around this time frame as well

However, this pattern should remain transient for the most part, which means periods of below normal temps and periods of above average temps. We are still in a fast paced zonal flow until the NAO goes negative, which still doesn't look like will happen for at least the next week to 10 days. 

EPO (which will be a significant driver in our pattern this upcoming winter) from the EURO above proves why this pattern should remain mainly transient. 

I have a couple things to say about the 2013-2014 winter:

1. The AO may reach a record high positive value this month, but the only reason why I am not concerned is because of the way snow cover and ice extent has progressed in Siberia/Eurasia and Arctic, respectively. However, research of analogs does show when the AO reaches a mighty high positive value (3 or greater) like it should this week, December should be above normal (2011 being a recent example).

2. The -PDO regime will continue this winter, but parts of the equatorial Pacific are warming, which is interesting and should not be dismissed (especially if it continues!) 

3. I like the progression of the Stratosphere. Asia is not as cool as it was this time last year, and just maybe we can get the PV to our side of the globe. 

Obviously I will have much more in the 2013-2014 winter outlook, which is set to be released on November 18th, a Monday. In the outlook, I plan to cover ENSO, Stratosphere, Ice Extent, Snow Cover, Sunspots, Analogs, and Wildcards. My forecast will be made from my interpretations of those factors, along with my "gut" feeling of how things could play out. 

For now, enjoy the quieter than normal weather pattern and I will catch you all again on November 18th with the outlook. Please feel free to join with NJ Strong Weather Forum at www.njstrongweatherforum.com which consists of members mainly from NYC Metro, all of NJ, Long Island, Hudson Valley area, and CT. 

Have a good day

-Francesco Paparatto