Today marks July 1st and a day I believe is a good time to assess the current weather pattern we are in. One thing we have noticed over the last 10 days is the constant humidity and periods of showers and t-storms that develop in the afternoon and evening hours. The ultimate reason for this type of weather pattern is driven by a phenomena dubbed the Bermuda High, sometimes called the Azores High depending on its location.
A Bermuda High is a permanent area of High Pressure located near, you guessed it, Bermuda. Mind blowing, I know. A reason why it is "permanent" is due to the fact land temperatures are greater than ocean temperatures during the summer time. This means we are constantly under a south-southwesterly wind flow thanks to the clockwise motion of the winds circulating around the High. In terms of weather, this means hot and humid weather for our area sourced by the Gulf of Mexico.
This is a graphic I made showing much of the east coast of the U.S. vulnerable for showers and t-storms at least for the next two weeks thanks to the Bermuda High. So if you look how the weather has been the last 10 days, you will enjoy the 1st half of July as well.
This is also well evidenced by the Euro model:
500mb pattern of the 00z EURO model shows the Bermuda High as well as the Pacific ridge (which has caused temperatures in the west to soar into the 110-130 degree mark). One other thing to keep in mind with the Bermuda High is that it prevents low pressure systems from tracking into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. If a low pressure system does manage to get into the area, it weakens dramatically. Therefore, most of our precipitation is tropical related from the Gulf of Mexico under an unstable air mass, allowing t-storms to develop in the afternoon hours of the day.
A quick look at the sea surface temperatures shows mid to upper 80's in the Gulf of Mexico, which proves why our weather has been so humid thanks to the clockwise motion of the winds from the Bermuda High. Also notice the SST's beginning to warm up in the southern Atlantic and off the west coast of Africa. This is eventually going to lead to an active period of tropical weather come mid to end of August and through September.
Personally, this is not my type of weather. But once the Bermuda High shifts east again (which will then re-develop a new High called the Azores High), our pattern will change for a 2-3 week period where drier conditions can be expected. I am thinking that happens the end of July.
Have a great day and a safe 4th of July! Drink responsibly ;)
Francesco Paparatto
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