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Friday through Saturday turned out to be crummy days. I did not expect the rain to last as long as it did on Saturday. Looks like the front slowed down and the energy off the east coast helped enhance rainfall over the area. Luckily Sunday turned out to be nice albeit windy conditions. Those 80's earlier last week were pretty nice, huh? We will not see another 80 degree day until 2017. A bold statement, I know. But I would be very surprised.
WEEK OF 10/24 - 10/30 FORECAST
Monday: Look for cloudy skies with rain falling in the morning, especially those N&W of NYC. A weak disturbance is tracking across southern NY state. By the afternoon the rain should come to an end, temperatures will gradually drop, and snow flurries are possible across northern NY. I wonder if any can get down into our area? If it happens it will be in the evening hours. Don't hold your breath though.
Tuesday - Wednesday: Plentiful sun with high temps in the low to mid 50's are expected. There will be a stiff northwest wind on Tuesday that will make temps feel a little colder - like 40's - and it will also cause breezy conditions. Sustained winds will be around 20 to 25 mph.
Thursday - Friday: Man oh man look at these Thursday morning temps valid 2:00am. 20's for those N&W of NYC and 30's everywhere else. Temps will rapidly rise during the day as a low pressure system cuts to our N&W. IF this low pressure system does not cut - and comes tracking straight across west to east - it's possible those to the north could see snow out of this system given the High Pressure to our north keeping the cold locked in over the area. I would bet against this happening since the upper energy seems too strong at this time, allowing warm air to move in from the south, but worth noting. Most likely look for rain, steady at times, to begin late Thurs morning or early afternoon. Showers may linger into Friday morning with clearing expected to take place by Friday afternoon into early evening. High temps on Thurs will be in the mid 50's and on Friday will rise into the low to mid 60's. Not a lot of rain is expected, less than an inch.
Saturday - Sunday: The GFS and EURO by the time we get into this time frame and Halloween (next Monday). EURO has a lingering storm system Sunday into Monday that keeps clouds, cool, and rainy conditions over the area. GFS is cool and partly sunny. At this time, I would bet against the EURO as it seems it's trying to hold too much energy back. Saturday definitely looks dry and cool with high's in the low 60's. Sunday let's go with partly sunny with a threat of rain showers. High's will be in the 50's to 60's too.
At this time I think Halloween will be mainly dry. There could be showers in the morning depending on which model turns out to be correct with the Sunday system. It looks like it will be cool. High temps may only be in the upper 40's to mid 50's. I'll keep everyone updated with regards to Halloween in the forum.
Beyond that, I think we could warm up a bit as we march into November. By 'warm' up I mean relative to normal. The EURO Ensembles show a potent ridge over the western and central U.S. the week of the 31st. If a piece of the Pacific trough breaks off and crashes into the western U.S., then this ridge will have no choice but to move east into our area. However, the trough in the NW Atlantic is in no rush to leave. If the Northwest flow stays over our area then the 31st to 2nd next week will likely be on the cool side. Overall, I am NOT seeing a pattern change that would favor accumulating snow for us at this time. It's ok, it is still early.
EURO Ensembles 5-day average heigh anomalies next week:
2016 - 2017 Winter Forecast
A reminder that my winter outlook will be out next Monday. I look forward to sharing what I've put together. Also, do not forget about the get together in NYC on November 5th at Mustang Harry's at 6pm. If you wish to come please go into the thread on the forum and reply to my post so I can get an accurate head count. Take a guess what we'll be discussing?
Enjoy your week
Best,
Francesco Paparatto
Join the forum:
www.njstrongweatherforum.com
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