Blizzard (green) and winter storm watches (blue) have been posted by the NWS for the Tri-State area.
Timing
Start: 7-10pm Monday
End: 5-8pm Tuesday
A powerful storm is taking aim on the NYC Metro region Monday afternoon into most of the day Tuesday. Amazingly, this storm did not materialize on the models until late Friday. If you're a weather enthusiast you probably took notice of the 'potential' but the models were pretty adamant on keeping all the energy dis-organized and to our south. Our attention was focused on the Saturday system since for some people that brought them their largest snowfall of the season. Alas, here we are talking about a potentially Historic storm, which could bring some people their largest snowfall they've ever seen in their lifetime in 1 storm.
The EURO model has been consistent by continuing to show run after run of the same track, intensity, and overall set-up of the pattern in the upper levels.
The EURO by Monday morning is showing all the players involved on the field. Read the red text to get an understanding of what this means, but to the average reader, all you have to know is the set-up advertised on the EURO is one that would lead to a very potent storm off the coast of NJ.
By Tuesday morning, we have one of the most impressive storms in history sitting off the coast of NJ pounding the area with blizzard conditions and burying us in snow. As the red text says, snowfall rates could be between 2 and as high as 5 inches PER HOUR.
The worst of the storm comes between 2am-11am on Tuesday. A 984 mb storm sitting right on the 40/70 BM.
You can get an idea of how temps. will look as the brunt of the storm moves in Tuesday morning. Air temps. are in the low to mid 20's, while 850mb temps sit between -7*C and -10*C. Temperatures this cold leads to higher snow accumulations of which we call higher snow ratios. Typically 1.00 inch of liquid would bring you 10 inches of snow (10:1). But we're expected to see 15:1 ratios for a period of time which will easily help snowfall pile up very quickly.
Here's a look at the jet streaks at play here from the EURO. It shows an H25/125kt jet coming over the western ridge and phasing into the mean trough of the storm. This is one of the reasons why the EURO outputs an extreme solution. The dynamics at play would be crazy to look at!
The wind gusts the EURO shows for LI are near hurricane force. 70+ mph in some instances. Winds are high enough along eastern NJ and NYC to warrant blizzard conditions. They'll be at their peak between 6-9am Tuesday morning.
The GFS model seems to be struggling with how to handle the upper air vorticities. You'll notice on its latest run that it takes the main southern s/w energy and brings it toward the east side of the trough, instead of consolidating it at the base. Put simply, the phase between both branches was sloppy resulting in a storm system that deepens at a later time. It also does not hook toward the coast like foreign models suggest.
So where are we headed? Is it Godzilla? Roidzilla? Frankzilla? These are questions that remain up in the air but I have a feeling by later today we'll have a much better idea. In my opinion, I think the EURO is not going to show such an extreme solution today at 12z. However, I think it will still look better than the latest GFS. Whatever the result it, a powerful storm is still going to impact the northeast. 12 inches of snow is not very typical, either. Stay tuned in the forum for the 1st call snow map.
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