Invest 97-L Potential Impact

Location: 20.4°N 86.0°W

Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: N/A

Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

Invest 97-L will momentarily be entering the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model is showing this storm strengthening to a tropical storm, perhaps even a weak category 1 hurricane. If this occurs, this storm would be named Karen. Once Karen forms, according to the GFS, it gets captured with a trough diving into the southeast and tracks up the east coast- bringing several inches of rainfall to NYC Metro, eastern PA, and NJ regions.

00z GFS:

Hour 120

Hour 126

However, I think there are some factors that need to be taken into consideration when looking at this system and the environment it is trying to develop in. 

Firstly, upper level winds are favorable now but they will not be once this system reaches the northern Gulf. This is due to the fact that there are two High Pressure systems located over northeastern Mexico and northern Florida. The wind patterns associated with both these upper level phenomena's are overlapping each other and is causing a lot of friction along the Gulf coast. 

Next is the TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential). To put it simply, this graphic shows how deep down the warm water of the ocean extend. Sure the ocean temps may look nice and warm at the surface, but tropical cyclones need those warm temperatures to extend deeper into the ocean's layer. Since 97-L is projected to track into the east-central Gulf, the TCHP is very low there. 

SST's are ok (actually a little cooler in northeast Gulf), but like I said above, TCHP is a far greater factor when trying to forecast the intensity of a tropical system. 

My thought's? 

I think the GFS is over-doing it a bit. However, I also think the EURO is too far east with the system. I do think we will see at least moderate rainfall early next week, but it will just be due to remnants or as part of the moisture that comes with the cold front. Initial thoughts are a 1-2 inch rainfall, with pockets of 2-3 inches of rain wherever the heaviest of the remnants track toward (inland along eastern PA, or up along the immediate coast)? I would not be surprised to see this system fall apart altogether. 

Rain at this point would be welcoming anyways. Most areas have not seen measurable rainfall since September 20th! Tuesday into Wednesday of next week would be the time frame to watch for this potential storm to impact the area. 

Have a great day!

-Francesco Paparatto

Notes:

1. Did not mention this, but do not be surprised to see pop-up showers over the weekend (Saturday and Sunday). Atmosphere is a little unstable and we are under a tropical flow. 

2. 1st half of October will start way above normal, but it looks like it wants to finish on the cool side. More on that over the weekend

3. Join. The. Forum! www.njstrongweatherforum.com 

4. 2013-2014 Winter Outlook will be released on Thanksgiving Day