Quick Check On The ENSO & Upcoming Winter

ENSO, for those who do not remember, stands for "El Nino/Southern Oscillation." Depending on which phase it is in (hot or cold), will let us know whether we are trending toward an El Nino or La Nina winter. It could also be La Nada, which means neutral. ENSO is one of the most significant factors in formulating seasonal outlooks, especially winter.

The dynamical and statistical models show predominately "La Nina-like" conditions currently in the central Pacific. Further examining of the actual values and taking a mean of those values, however, show mainly La Nada conditions. 

The plumes as of July 1st from the EURO model are trying to show a positive correlation trend begin by August and continue through the fall months. One thing to keep in mind is these plumes change month-by-month and sometimes begin to show different trends, so do not take them verbatim. 

As of now, it is too difficult to tell what the upcoming winter season will feature in terms of ENSO. If I were to look at historical trends dating back to 1950, I would say the upcoming winter season has a good chance of staying around neutral, with some "Nino-like" characteristics. But that will also depend on the PDO and whether or not it can climb out of its negative phase it has been in for quite some time now. 

My 2013-2014 winter outlook can be expected to be released December 1st. Last year, I was with EPAWA when I did the 2012-2013 winter outlook and I had the help of some great Meteorologists, such as Bobby Martrich and Jim Rinaldi, both based out of PA. 

That's all for now. Arrivederci. 

-Frank Paparatto