Rain Map From TS Andrea, June Likely To Finish Below Average

BLOG SONG: "Blurred Lines" by Robin Thicke 

Tropical Storm Andrea is born in the Gulf of Mexico and is headed toward the east coast of the United States. Florida is going to get decimated with rainfall, likely exceeding 6+ inches in some area. Fortunately for us in the northeast, the storm will become a remnant low and move at a quicker speed which will help prevent the high rainfall amounts like Florida will see. Still, it is going to be a very soggy Friday and Saturday and the chance for flash flooding can not be ruled out.

There she is, in the eastern GOM and headed toward western Florida toward Tampa. The reason why the west side of the storm is disorganized and poorly wrapped is due to the upper level wind motion coming across the GOM from west to east. It is helping to shear out and keep the storm weaker. 

Here is the expected track of the storm. It should weaken to a depression and eventually just a remnant low by the time it reaches the east coast. SST's off the coast area only in the 50's, so this storm does not have much to work with to gain intensity. 

The GFS model, and most models at that, keep Andrea above 1,000mb and bring winds mainly in the 20-30mph range. There will be times, especially along the coast, where gusts can be 30-40+ mph. But storm surge is not expected to be severe. 

Here is HPC's rainfall map. I do think they are overdone with some of the rain totals. They have widespread amounts through much of the northeastern states, and I do not see that happening. A cold front coming from the west will help enhance rainfall amounts in western PA and western/northern NY, but the bulk of the moisture from Andrea should remain along the coast and spare the interior areas. Interior zones will get most of their rain from the cold front. 

That being said, below is my rainfall map for the area for Friday through Saturday. 

Overall, this storm will come and go and should not bring many issues to the area. Flood prone zones that live near rivers should stay alert, since the rain can come down heavy at times and cause flash flooding. I know it is prom and prom weekend for many schools this weekend, so it is unfortunate you have to deal with the storm. Sun should come out again on Sunday, but I guess you will have to find other things to do besides go to the beach this weekend...

Have a good one. 

-Frank Paparatto 

P.S.- About the June ending below normal part...I decided to hold up on that explanation. Will have a blog about that perhaps next week.