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Man, what a fabulous weather weekend. Saturday started off cloudy but the sun came out by the afternoon. Temperatures felt fall-like in the lower 70s and 60s with not much humidity. The area is in desperate need of rain. All summer long its been relatively dry and lawns across the tri-state look as dry as the Sahara right now. Luckily, rain relief is on the way this week.
09/26 - 09/30 FORECAST:
A pleasant start to the week. High pressure in control on Monday will keep us under sunshine with high temps in the low to mid 70's. Winds will turn from the north to the south as a front approaches the area by the evening.
Early Tuesday morning, after Midnight, rain will move into the area and last until mid to late morning. The further northwest you live, the faster you will dry out on Tuesday. Rain could be over for northwest sections as early as 8am on Tuesday. (Figure 1)
Figure 1 - rain overspreading the area along a frontal boundary
Wednesday will be much like Monday. Sunshine to start the day with high temps in the low to mid 70's with increasing clouds by the evening. By late evening, rain will move into southern sections of NJ and gradually spread north overnight.
Thursday - Friday will feature a coastal storm, a Nor'easter in fact, that is expected to bring moderate rainfall to the area. The upper level pattern is conducive for a coastal storm to impact the area (Figure 2 & 3)
Figure 2 - An Upper Level Low over the Ohio Valley is caught under a couple of ridges to its north, which slows the jet stream down and allows a surface low to develop along the coast.
Figure 3 - a zoomed in look of the 500 mb ULL. The "L'" represents the surface low and the track it's expected to take.
This will not be a potent Nor'easter. The surface low pressure is expected to stay above 1000 mb and winds will not exceed 20 mph. The large Upper Level Low coming from the west is not working with impressive jet dynamics that would be able to enhance this system. That is not to mean there will not be a good amount of rain. Models are showing moderate to heavy rainfall overspreading the area Thursday afternoon and lasting into the evening (Figure 4). Rain will continue into Friday though it is expected to be more on and off by then. There could be a break from the rain Friday morning then another round of light showers later in the afternoon. High temperatures may not get out of the 60's THU-FRI due to the rain. Going to be pretty raw outside...ew.
Figure 4 - Heavy rain forming over the Tri-State Thursday afternoon
All together, the rain we see this week should exceed 2-3 inches for most locations (Figure 5). I do not know about you, but I am quite glad we're getting some. Fall foliage is still going to look pretty crappy this year since its been a dry summer. However, there are places in the elevated sections of NJ and NY that look nice regardless of the wet season.
Figure 5 - Total rainfall for the week with most of it falling Thursday-Friday from the Nor'easter. Some spots could see isolated 4" of rain. Localized flooding possible.
Some leftover clouds on Saturday but for the most part it should be dry and sunny with temps back into the 70's.
LONG RANGE:
While the upcoming week will remain seasonable, guidance is in fair agreement of warming temperatures returning to the area. Possibly hitting the 80's once again. The GFS and EURO Ensembles suggest a trough will enter the Pacific Northwest and a ridge builds over the Northeast (Figures 6 & 7).
Figures 6 (GEFS) & 7 (EPS) show a ridge, pointing to above normal temperatures, building over the Northeast between October 2nd - October 7th.
The above normal temps, possibly in the low 80's (in October!), is not the ambiguous part to the forecast that week. It will be the possibility of a tropical entity affecting our area. Models are showing a large Hurricane, likely to be named Matthew, over the Atlantic at that time. However, some models also show this system heading into the Gulf of Mexico. There is a large spread of guidance on where he will track. Here are the likely storm tracks:
A) Into the Gulf of Mexico with landfall between TX and FL
B) A direct hit somewhere along the east coast, most likely between FL and NC then up the coast
C) A re-curve out to sea
As details become more certain and models come into better agreement, I will release another blog outlining the weather impacts, whether direct or indirect, this system will have for our area. Look at the size the GFS blows this storm up to (Figure 8). Pretty scary. Hopefully it stays far far away.
Figure 8 - Soon to be Hurricane Matthew on the 18z GFS. A category 4 Hurricane for sure west of Bermuda and east of the U.S. East Coast. Too close for comfort indeed...
I hope every has a fantastic week! Thanks for reading.
Best,
Francesco Paparatto
Be sure to stay tuned to the forum for latest development and breaking weather news.
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