Rain Map From TS Andrea, June Likely To Finish Below Average

BLOG SONG: "Blurred Lines" by Robin Thicke 

Tropical Storm Andrea is born in the Gulf of Mexico and is headed toward the east coast of the United States. Florida is going to get decimated with rainfall, likely exceeding 6+ inches in some area. Fortunately for us in the northeast, the storm will become a remnant low and move at a quicker speed which will help prevent the high rainfall amounts like Florida will see. Still, it is going to be a very soggy Friday and Saturday and the chance for flash flooding can not be ruled out.

There she is, in the eastern GOM and headed toward western Florida toward Tampa. The reason why the west side of the storm is disorganized and poorly wrapped is due to the upper level wind motion coming across the GOM from west to east. It is helping to shear out and keep the storm weaker. 

Here is the expected track of the storm. It should weaken to a depression and eventually just a remnant low by the time it reaches the east coast. SST's off the coast area only in the 50's, so this storm does not have much to work with to gain intensity. 

The GFS model, and most models at that, keep Andrea above 1,000mb and bring winds mainly in the 20-30mph range. There will be times, especially along the coast, where gusts can be 30-40+ mph. But storm surge is not expected to be severe. 

Here is HPC's rainfall map. I do think they are overdone with some of the rain totals. They have widespread amounts through much of the northeastern states, and I do not see that happening. A cold front coming from the west will help enhance rainfall amounts in western PA and western/northern NY, but the bulk of the moisture from Andrea should remain along the coast and spare the interior areas. Interior zones will get most of their rain from the cold front. 

That being said, below is my rainfall map for the area for Friday through Saturday. 

Overall, this storm will come and go and should not bring many issues to the area. Flood prone zones that live near rivers should stay alert, since the rain can come down heavy at times and cause flash flooding. I know it is prom and prom weekend for many schools this weekend, so it is unfortunate you have to deal with the storm. Sun should come out again on Sunday, but I guess you will have to find other things to do besides go to the beach this weekend...

Have a good one. 

-Frank Paparatto 

P.S.- About the June ending below normal part...I decided to hold up on that explanation. Will have a blog about that perhaps next week. 

2013 Summer Outlook

BLOG SONG: "Obsession" by Sky Ferreira 

Good Evening,

Has anyone waken up in the morning and questioned themselves which season we are in? If so, you are not alone. It has been a cool and wet spring, one we have not seen for quite some time. There has been a delayed start to both the gardening and beach season. Hell, there has even been a delayed start to the 17-year cicada invasion. Fortunately, warmer weather is on the way and we can begin to enjoy the outdoors once again. Including the cicada sounds...

I wanted to take this time to talk a bit about the upcoming summer season and what I am seeing in the form of an outlook.

The above image are temperature departures between June and August of 2012. It was HOT for pretty much the majority of the country, besides the northwest and southeast corners of the U.S. Since the Midwest was experiencing a drought at the time, much of that heat was able to expand eastward and bring warmer than normal temps into the northeast. 

This is the amount of moisture in the soil throughout the U.S. as of the 23rd of May. 

And this graphic is the amount of moisture in the U.S. through all of April. 

Moral of the story here is: the end of March, into April, and most of May has been very wet in the east-central Midwest, Pacific Northwest, Ohio Valley, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast. Lets take a quick look at the U.S. Drought Map

Besides portions of New England, the largest and most significant drought is found in the southwest and west-central Midwest. This map nicely coincides with the soil moisture maps I posted above. What this tells me is the western U.S. is going to be under the heat dome for the majority of the summer. They have already been battling forest fires and it will only continue to get worse as we head into the heart of the summer. 

The above 3 graphics prove that the upcoming summer will feature an ENSO-neutral, in other words, no La Nina or El Nino. The dynamical models are in consensus on this, and the SST's in the east-central Pacific would also verify the neutral ENSO conditions. I want to note that the ENSO related to creating summer outlooks does not have the strongest influence on the overall climate. An ENSO-neutral summer does not mean this summer will be hotter or colder than usual. I do like to mention it though because I think it is important to check on the ENSO, specifically for the hurricane season. 

A check on the PDO still shows below normal SST's in the Gulf of Alaska. However, there has been strides in the PDO getting to neutral and potentially positive. I can not confidently say the PDO will be positive by the time this summer is over, but I do have a feeling it will NOT be. 

These sets of values are the PDO Index. As you can see, the PDO was on a positive trend December-January of this past year, but it has gone back negative February-March. As of April, it took a rather large positive trend and currently sits at -.16. May will be over in about 1 week, and we will see where the PDO will stand. I think it will take another trend in the positive direction given the warmer SST's in the eastern GOA. 

The CFS forecast as shown above (June, July, August respectively), is in general consensus the above normal temperature departures will persist in the western/southwestern U.S. This is where the drought currently is and where the forests fires have imploded. 

So, what am I thinking for the eastern U.S.? Specifically the Northeast...

I think for the most part, the northeastern U.S. is going to experience mainly average temperature departures with periods of extreme heat waves that could take us to an above average summer. I do not feel this will be an all out and widespread above average summer, but I can see isolated areas in the eastern U.S. end the summer with above average temp. anomalies. 

Given the current wet soils across much of the eastern U.S. thanks to the above normal precipitation through the spring, I feel that the heat dome that will persist in the western U.S. will have a difficult time translating eastward. 

As the ridge moves east, temperatures will moderate. The -PDO in the Pac. Northwest will help keep them at the least around average, and with that I feel the overall Jet Stream will take more of a double-dip in the U.S. One dip in the northwest and another in the northeast. I can also see how we go through periods of wet stretches. More-so than last year. The Gulf of Mexico is beginning to warm up and that will help feed moisture into low pressure systems that move into the eastern U.S. Between the GOM and the Bermuda High, we could also see a lot of tropical moisture enter the northeast U.S. this year, specifically not until August and into September. 

We will see how things transpire. These are just some of my thoughts. 

Have a GREAT and safe Memorial Day and make the best out of Sunday and Monday! 

-Francesco Paparatto